Report Projects Global Oil Demand Expected to Continue Growing

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) has released a report projecting that global oil demand will persistently rise, defying earlier predictions of a peak before 2030. The report challenges projections from organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which anticipated a decline in oil demand within the next decade.

According to EIR’s analysis, global oil demand is projected to reach approximately 108 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) by 2030. The report emphasizes that despite efforts to promote fuel economy and the adoption of electric vehicles, these measures have not been sufficient to offset the growing global appetite for oil. Furthermore, EIR highlights the lack of substantial new supply projects, coupled with rising supply costs, as factors likely to contribute to higher oil prices in the post-2030 period.

According to the report, the importance of historical trends indicates that significant changes in consumption behavior or a reversal of off-oil measures would be necessary to align with the more optimistic predictions of peak oil demand by 2030.

The report also suggests that while the rate of demand growth may gradually slow, it is unlikely to peak before the end of the decade. This assessment is based on the absence of material shifts in consumption per capita trends across regions and product categories, as well as the persistent link between economic growth and oil consumption.

Al Salazar, the report’s author, further elaborates on the implications of EIR’s findings, stating, “Our demand forecasts result in a world where OPEC’s influence on oil price strengthens, supporting the group’s preference for Brent prices of $85-$105/bbl.” This indicates a potential strengthening of OPEC’s position in the global oil market as it continues to wield significant influence over pricing dynamics.

In conclusion, EIR’s report challenges the main narratives regarding the trajectory of global oil demand, painting a picture of continued growth rather than an imminent peak. The findings suggest that while the landscape of oil consumption may evolve, the fundamental drivers of demand remain resilient, posing challenges to the efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.