AccuWeather Forecasts More Storms in 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

As the Atlantic hurricane season draws near, the latest forecast from AccuWeather projects an increase in named storms compared to the relatively calm year prior. This prediction, grounded in many atmospheric and oceanic indicators, serves as a call for preparedness efforts to be intensified.

According to AccuWeather, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is poised to be anything but ordinary. The agency anticipates a surge in tropical activity, with an unsettling estimate of 20-25 named storms, including eight-12 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes. These numbers far surpass the 2023 season, which saw 19 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which attained major hurricane status. Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.

Central to AccuWeather’s forecast are several key factors, each contributing to the ominous outlook. Foremost among them is the persistent warmth in the waters of the Atlantic basin. Sea-surface temperatures, well above historical averages, serve as an incubator for tropical cyclones, providing the necessary fuel for their formation and rapid intensification. Recent observations indicate a striking resemblance to the warm witnessed during the hurricane seasons of 2005 and 2020, underscoring the gravity of the situation.

AccuWeather’s forecast aligns with recent assessments from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which also anticipates the onset of La Niña conditions by the summer months. Although NOA won’t issue a forecast until May, the development of a La Niña in the Pacific may create a “perfect storm” of the conditions needed for major hurricanes. This convergence of expert opinion underscores the seriousness of the situation and emphasizes the need for proactive preparedness measures.

The consequences of these elevated temperatures extend far beyond statistical probabilities. AccuWeather warns of the potential for tropical systems to materialize even before the official onset of hurricane season, defying convention and catching vulnerable regions off guard. Furthermore, the prolonged warmth into the autumn months could prolong the season’s duration, challenging traditional expectations of a gradual wind-down.

Combining these concerns is the anticipated transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions. La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, creates an environment favorable to tropical development in the Atlantic. Reduced wind shear associated with La Niña further facilitates storm formation and intensification, amplifying the existing risk. Click here to learn more about hurricane season.

Stay ahead of Hurricane Season

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With an extensive network servicing the US and Canada, Mansfield understands the critical importance of proactive measures in facing potential disruptions caused by hurricanes. Leveraging their in-depth knowledge, Mansfield has developed a comprehensive Emergency Response Fuel program that includes industry best practices. Mansfield’s program offers a multi-tiered approach, prioritizing essential services and collaborating closely with partners to ensure seamless fuel distribution during emergencies. Contact us today!