Natural Gas News – August 25, 2025

Natural Gas News – August 25, 2025

Mansfield Market Assessment

The market continues to grind lower on the heels of very bearish weather and lower LNG export volumes. The 1–15-day forecast is around 33 CDD below the 10-year normal. Weather does not get more bearish than what we are seeing. Models are not trying to bring back any heat after day 15 so this pattern looks locked in for a bit. End of season storage estimates range from 3.965 Tcf to 4.05 Tcf. Lower prices do cure low prices so I do not think we go much lower than 2.50 unless we see some extrinsic event such as a Freeport trip.

Bearish Forecast Builds as Market Eyes Breakdown Below $2.574

U.S. natural gas futures closed the week down 7.48%, settling at $2.698, after decisively breaking below long-held support levels. A persistent combination of mild weather, surging production, and elevated inventories continues to weigh heavily on price action. The move not only erased prior gains but also positions the market to test a key long-term support at $2.574, a level not seen in nearly ten months. Forecast models from Atmospheric G2 show a clear cooling trend across major demand regions into early September. Temperatures are expected to dip into the mid-60s to low 80s across the Midwest, Northeast, and Ohio Valley—suppressing power sector demand just as late-summer cooling loads should be peaking… For more info go to https://tinyurl.com/57wsy5dt