Weekend Summary

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US is doing ‘something we’ve never seen before’ with crude – Kloza

According to Tom Kloza, head of energy analysis at OPIS, the U.S. is increasing oil exports with unprecedented speed, and is unlikely to slow down. He expects exports to rise above 2 million barrels per day, a record for U.S. exports, and remain high in 2018, pressuring Brent prices to fall lower as the U.S. becomes more of a global player. Crude exports had been banned for 40-years until the law was lifted under the Obama administration two years ago. Click Here to read more from CNBC.

Oil Prices Poised to Rise

According to Paal Kibsgaard, CEO of Schlumberger, the largest publicly traded oilfield services company, oil prices are beginning to firm up and will likely rise in 2018. Numerous factors, including OPEC production cuts and lower investments in U.S. exploration, will converge to elp move prices higher. Unfortunately for Schlumberger, the U.S. is one of the only areas in the country still growing its output, and their international customers have cut back demand for oilfield services. Click Here to read more from Schlumberger.

Major Oil Traders See Upside for Oil Prices

Oil price forecasts vary widely, and despite the calm we’ve seen in the market over the past year, that variety remains. Some countries expect prices to surpass $60 in 2018, driven by strong demand, particularly in India, which has seen weaker demand this year amid several environmental disasters.  Others expect that blooming U.S. production will flood the markets and send prices back to $45. Agreement also differs about the impact from electric vehicles (EVs). Some say they could send oil prices to $10 by 2025; others say EV adoption has been slow and likely will not significantly alter oil prices for decades. Click Here to read more from OilPrice.com

OPEC Dithering on Output Cuts Could Kill Oil’s Rally

According to Julian Lee of Bloomberg, the oil rally is nearly out of steam, and will need support from OPEC if it is to continue. OPEC members have been commenting on the prospect of extending production cuts beyond March 2018, when they’re currently set to expire. So far, some members have taken a “wait and see” approach, not committing to action until we get through the winter and see how inventories have fared. That approach could create more uncertainty than help. Click Here for an in-depth analysis from Bloomberg.