Storm Alert – Tropical Storm Rafael – November 5, 2024
Just as hurricane season appeared to be winding down, Tropical Storm Rafael has emerged in the Caribbean. Currently moving northwest through the western Caribbean near Jamaica, Rafael is forecasted to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane by Tuesday before weakening as it moves over Cuba.
Current models suggest the storm may be a Tropical Storm or weaker when it makes landfall in the US. Forecasts vary widely, with some showing the storm moving northward towards Louisiana while others suggest a westward tilt towards southern Texas or Mexico.
Regardless of its ultimate landfall destination, Rafael’s projected path through the Gulf of Mexico could directly affect offshore oil and gas production. If it reaches Category 2 status, as anticipated, winds could hit 100 mph, temporarily reducing US oil production by 3.1 to 4.9 million barrels. Some production facilities have begun evacuating non-essential personnel from offshore platforms and paused some operations in preparation, although production remains largely unaffected at this stage.
Mansfield is closely monitoring the storm and its projected path. Currently, it’s unclear where the storm will land, so Mansfield is actively working with customers throughout the Gulf Coast to plan and prepare. Rafael could have the second-largest impact on offshore production this season, trailing only behind Hurricane Francine.
Mansfield will continue monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael and will provide updates as more information becomes available.
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