As Iran Talks Draw Near, Oil Prices Fall

This morning crude oil prices are pulling back from their multi-year highs as talks between Iran and the U.S. are drawing closer. These talks will be about the nuclear agreement that was halted a few months back and could lead to more oil exports from the OPEC producer, which would be met openly given the current state of the market.

This international nuclear agreement discussed before would allow more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil to be added back to the market. This would equate to around 1% of global supply being added back, certainly helping prices if it were to happen. If the talks between the two countries go according to plan, the added oil back to the market from Iran would be much-needed support. The worry now comes from the fact that since 2015, all eight talks between the United States and Iran have not solved anything. For Iran, their demands seem to be cemented in the idea that they want all Trump-era sanctions lifted, but it is unclear whether the United States would act upon that demand.

Another factor helping bring prices down this morning was French President Emmanuel Macron meeting with Vladimir Putin today to prevent the Ukrainian crisis from escalating. While the French president has told reporters that Putin says he does not intend to escalate the situation in Ukraine further, trusting the Russian government is anything but reliable at this point. Over the past few weeks, while the Kremlin has denied reports of preparing for an invasion, they have at the same time been sending countless thousands of troops, equipment, and vehicles to the Ukrainian border. Whether or not it is a legitimate threat remains to be determined, but their reliability for most of the world has grown thin. With Iran talks today and the ongoing situation between Russia and Ukraine, markets will undoubtedly keep a watchful eye throughout the rest of the week.