Weekend Summary

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Most U.S. Oil Executives See Prices Below $60/barrel through 2018

A recent survey of oil executives showed prices remaining below $60 through 2018. In general, executives point to cost cutting measures and efficiencies in the U.S. that will help keep prices lower. Based on the survey, prices may not hit $70/bbl until the 2020s. Click Here to read more from Reuters.

Deterioration of Iran deal could have ‘meaningful impact’ on oil market next year

President Trump has announced his plan to decertify the Iran deal, kicking the issue over to Congress. While the plan does not automatically reimpose sanctions, it could lead to more pressure on Iran, possibly leading to a failure of the deal later next year. Iran exports 2.3 million barrels per day of oil, which would be put in jeopardy if sanctions are re-imposed. Click Here to read more from CNBC.

The Urgent Problem is Kurdish Oil

After the Kurds’ vote to secede from Iraq, nearly half a million barrels of crude production have been under threat. Turkey controls the pipeline used to get Kurdish oil to the Mediterranean Sea, and they’ve threatened to cut off oil flow. Iraq and the Kurds have had tensions flare up, with a new civil war potentially on the horizon. Click Here to read an in-depth analysis of how the crisis will affect oil markets, from Bloomberg.

Glencore says global demand robust enough to soak up U.S. oil

According to the second largest oil trader in the world, global demand will be strong enough to absorb growing U.S. oil supplies. China will be the main center of demand, as a growing population and rapidly growing strategic petroleum reserves cause imports to rise. Glencore is one of the largest shippers of oil to China, giving them insight into demand trends in the country. Click Here to read more from Reuters.

U.S. oil exports will keep booming after hitting record 2 million barrels per day

U.S. exports were just under 2 million barrels per day last week, and analysts think exports could rise even higher. That puts us ahead of producers like Venezuela and Nigeria. The gap is driven by large spreads between U.S. WTI crude prices and international Brent prices, which has reached $6.25 in recent weeks. For context, shipping overseas generally costs about $4, giving shippers a $2.25 extra profit margin. Exports will remain strong for the next couple months as producers fulfill commitments to overseas buyers, but eventually the arbitrage opportunity will close, as shrinking supplies in the U.S. drive up WTI prices. Click Here to read more from CNBC.