Canadian Oil Production Continues to Grow, Extending 16-Year Streak

Canadian oil production kept its momentum into 2025, with crude oil and equivalent product output rising for the 16th consecutive year, according to data released by Statistics Canada.

In January, Canada produced 150 million barrels (bbl) of crude oil, a 9.4% increase compared to the same month in 2024. Production of equivalent products, which includes natural gas liquids and other petroleum products, also rose nearly 14% year over year to 17.77 million bbl. Despite the strong annual gains, both crude and equivalent output slipped slightly compared to December, falling by about 2.2 million bbl and 150,000 bbl, respectively.

Exports continued to be a major driver of growth. Canadian crude oil exports totaled 129 million bbl in January, up from 125.5 million bbl a year earlier. This strength is tied in part to the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline, which has tripled the flow capacity between Western Canada and the Pacific Coast since its opening last year. However, exports dipped slightly compared to December and could face headwinds in the coming months after the United States imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports earlier this month.

On the import side, Canada brought in 22.3 million bbl of crude oil in January, down 470,000 bbl compared to January 2024, reflecting stronger domestic production and changing market dynamics.

Refineries also saw robust activity to start the year. Canadian refineries processed 22.28 million bbl in January, a 7.4% year-over-year increase. Gasoline demand remained solid, with implied demand totaling 21.76 million bbl, up 2.5% from the prior year. Gasoline stocks rose 7.8% year over year to 1.95 million bbl.

Distillate products — including diesel — supplied during the month reached 17.48 million bbl, marking an 11.3% increase year over year. Distillate production rose 8.5% to 23.85 million bbl, while stocks fell by 3.3% to 15.2 million bbl, indicating strong consumption.

Jet fuel demand also showed healthy growth. Products supplied in January totaled 4.8 million bbl, a 6.6% increase year over year. Refineries produced 3.3 million bbl of jet fuel during the month, up an impressive 31.7% compared to January 2024. Jet fuel inventories closed the month at 2.66 million bbl, 11% higher than the previous year.

As 2025 progresses, Canadian oil markets are poised for continued growth, though new trade barriers could create new challenges for exports in the months ahead. You can learn more about the tariffs here.