Week in Review: Oil Markets Ride Bullish Momentum into Good Friday

Oil markets posted their first weekly gain in three weeks, buoyed by renewed geopolitical tensions and supply-side developments. Brent crude rose to $66.83 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $63.56 yesterday, the highest level for both benchmarks since April 3. With markets closed today in observance of Good Friday, the week’s activity closed on a high note despite broader bearish sentiment.

The latest price rally was driven in part by fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian crude exports. The Treasury Department imposed new restrictions on Chinese “teapot” refiners—independent processors importing Iranian oil—and expanded efforts to clamp down on Iran’s shadow fleet. While these measures may not fully cease Iranian exports, they’ve sparked concerns about global supply disruptions, especially given already fragile geopolitical conditions.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, U.S. inventory data showed a draw in refined product stocks, lending to increased fuel prices despite a rise in crude inventories. OPEC further stoked sentiment by announcing additional output cuts from member countries, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, though analysts remain skeptical about the full implementation of those pledges.

California’s fuel supply picture was greyed this week after Valero’s announcement that it will shut the doors to its Benicia refinery in April 2026. The closure, driven by the state’s tightening energy and environmental regulations, will reduce the number of in-state refineries capable of producing California’s specialized gasoline to just seven. Industry groups warn this move will lead to higher pump prices, increased supply volatility, and greater reliance on foreign imports—adding pressure to an already precarious regional fuel market.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slashed its WTI outlook this week, projecting the benchmark crude to average $63.88 per barrel in 2025 and $57.48 in 2026, down significantly from previous estimates. The EIA anticipates a gradual decline in pricing through late 2026, citing a mix of softening demand and stable global supply.

Other financial institutions echoed the EIA’s projections. J.P. Morgan forecasted WTI to average $62 in 2025 and $53 in 2026, while Goldman Sachs projected $63 and $55, respectively. BMI, on the other hand, maintained a more bullish view at $73 for 2025 and $72 for 2026. Standard Chartered Bank remained the most bullish, predicting prices could reach $82 by 2026, based on expectations of tighter supply and a stronger demand rebound.

Prices in Review

Crude prices opened the week at $61.70 on Monday and showed modest fluctuations before a stronger increase late in the week. After a slight dip to $61.58 on Tuesday and $61.54 on Wednesday, prices climbed to $62.63 on Thursday, marking the week’s high. With markets closed on Good Friday, crude gained $0.93 over the week, a 1.51% increase.

Diesel prices opened at $2.0709 per gallon on Monday and experienced steady gains throughout the week. Prices inched up to $2.0916 on Tuesday and $2.0924 on Wednesday before seeing a stronger jump to $2.1191 on Thursday. With markets closed for Good Friday, diesel prices rose by 4.82 cents, reflecting a 2.33% increase for the week.

Gasoline prices began the week at $2.0052 per gallon and steadily climbed each day. Tuesday saw a modest uptick to $2.0238, followed by continued gains to $2.0355 on Wednesday and $2.0467 on Thursday. With markets closed on Good Friday, gasoline prices increased by 4.15 cents, a 2.07% rise for the week.