Could Oil Production Surge Under Biden?

Today conflicting political news is shining a light on oil production under the Biden administration. On one hand, this week the Biden White House reversed Trump-era Arctic Drilling plans, revoking permits released years ago. On the other hand, a report from the Energy Information Administration now forecasts that oil production will rise to an all-time high by 2023. With an administration that has openly challenged America’s fossil fuel industry, how can oil production be heading towards record highs?

This week new information in a report from the EIA shows the possibility of oil production setting a full-year record in 2023. This is important news as the Biden administration is focused primarily on renewable energy and zero-carbon emissions. Even more interesting is the data that we see from the EIA. According to the EIA, the United States could see around 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023. This is ahead of the 12.3 million bpd average we saw in 2019, but still slightly off from the peak of 2019, where the country reached 13 million bpd.

So why is this projection so steep when Biden has made it clear that he plans to reduce as much of the carbon footprint as possible while reversing major Trump-era plans supporting crude drilling? The answer is not so simple, but there is one factor we can pin it to. Many believe it to be part of an optimistic look to a time when COVID-19 and supply chain issues are not plaguing world economics. Recent data in the EIA report suggests that COVID-19 and supply chain issues will most likely be resolved by 2023, showing that oil production can once again rise from the ashes that it was covered by when the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Snohomish Country, Washington on January 19, 2020. There are new times ahead of us, and with recent data showing the positive outcomes of a world that has overcome an extremely contagious disease, we may start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.