Oil prices are rising this morning following yet another vaccine, Oxford-AstroZenaca, announcing results showing an average 70% effectiveness. Behind that average, though, the study found that certain doses were as much as 90% effective. Numerous vaccines mean more producers can work on manufacturing simultaneously, meaning more vaccines available sooner for distribution.
The head of America’s vaccine program reported that limited quantities of vaccines could be distributed in December following FDA approval, with widespread immunity coming as soon as May 2021. Given that timeline, oil demand could return to normal as soon as Q2 2021.
With all the volatility in fuel prices, it can be helpful to maintain a view forward to anticipate changes in the market. Back in September, Mansfield supply team members provided forecasts of how crude oil prices might end 2020.
This morning, markets are moving higher as traders hope for rising demand in the near future. In addition, consensus is building that OPEC+ will maintain current cut levels through Q1 2021, which would keep an extra 1.9 MMbpd off the market compared to current Q1 cut levels. Crude oil is trading at $42.95 this morning, up 53 cents to the highest level since early September.
Fuel prices are also soaring today. Diesel is trading at $1.3067, up 2 cents from Friday’s closing price. Gasoline is trading at $1.1954, also gaining 2 cents.