Bullish EIA STEO Lift Markets

By Published On: May 13, 2020Categories: Daily Market News & Insights

On Tuesday, WTI Crude finished the day up.  It spiked mid-session on the news that OPEC+ may keep supply cuts in place past June.  Crude prices are flat this morning, as traders weigh possible OPEC+ plans to deepen supply cuts against demand concerns made worse by a possible second wave of coronavirus infections as countries come out of quarantine. China suffered a setback as it eased restrictions after new cases emerged in Wuhan — the epicenter of the outbreak.  This resurgence prompted an order for the entire population of 11 million to be tested for the coronavirus just a few weeks after emerging from quarantine.

A bullish Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report by the EIA helped to lift markets yesterday.  The EIA expects crude prices will average $23/b during the second quarter of 2020 before increasing to $32/b during the second half of the year. EIA forecasts that Brent prices will rise to an average of $48/b in 2021. For liquid fuels, firmer demand growth as the global economy begins to recover and slower supply growth will contribute to world-wide oil inventory draws starting in the third quarter of 2020. EIA expects global liquid fuel inventories will fall by 1.9 million b/d in 2021.

The API’s data last night:

The API reported a larger-than-expected build for crude of 7.6 MMbbls versus an expected growth of 4.4 MMbbls.  At Cushing, stocks drew by 2.3 MMbbls – the first draw at Cushing since February.  The API reported that gasoline had a smaller-than-expected draw, and distillates had a larger-than-expected increase.  The EIA will report numbers later this morning.

Crude prices are relatively flat this morning.  WTI Crude is trading at $25.81, a gain of 3 cents.

Fuel is mixed in early trading this morning.  Diesel is trading at $0.8452, a gain of 0.7 cents.  Gasoline is trading at $0.8981, a loss of 2.0 cents.

This article is part of Daily Market News & Insights

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