Storm Recovery Update – Southeast Diesel, TX Markets Move Green

Supply in the U.S. has been improving significantly over the past few days. Today, Mansfield moves diesel in the Southeast (excluding Georgia) to Code Green, indicating a return to normal supply levels. Gasoline supply in the southeast remains on Code Orange, as high retail demand has continued to put pressure on supply and price indexes.

Another bit of good news today is the downgrading of Houston and Corpus Christi to Code Green for all products. After three weeks of extremely tight supply and limited carrier capacity, the situation in South Texas is finally improving. West Texas and Dallas remain on Code Red, with supply and carrier capacity still extremely limited.

Florida remains unchanged – diesel supply is currently Code Orange, but gasoline is on Code Red due to retail demand. The Northeast also remains on Code Orange until Jose moves past the area.

Weather Update

Thankfully, both Jose and Maria appear to be moving away from the U.S., at least for now. Hurricane Jose has begun its turn out to sea. The worst impact expected right now is tropical storm winds in NY City up to Boston, but no operational disruptions are expected. Jose could shift, however, so we continue to monitor the situation.

Maria has shifted further West since yesterday, though the storm remains too far offshore to make accurate predictions about impacts to the U.S. When Irma was this far out, models were showing a South Carolina landfall after skirting over Florida. The moral of the story: models are a best estimate, but can easily shift over time. Mansfield continues monitoring the storm, and will keep Florida and Georgia on alert until the storm’s movements are better understood.

Texas Supply: 

Texas supply has improved significantly. Houston and Corpus Christi move to Green for all products. San Antonio is expected to go green either tomorrow or Thursday if current improvements hold. Dallas is still tight, but we expect it to improve towards the end of the week. West Texas (El Paso/Odessa) is the holdout, and will probably be the last market to come off Code Red.

  • West Texas/El Paso: Still extremely tight. No diesel in El Paso, extremely limited in Odessa. Long hauls are continuing in this area. Expecting this to be the last Texas market to move to Code Orange.
  • Dallas FTW: Still tight. Supply is improving somewhat; carrier capacity remains tight. Hoping to move to Code Orange by end of week.
  • San Antonio: Markets significantly improving. Carrier capacity is tight, but keeping up with demand. Expect to move to Green in coming days.
  • Houston: Moved to Green
  • Corpus Christi: Moved to Green

Southeast Supply: 

Mississippi through North Carolina moving to Code Green for diesel, gasoline remains tight in some markets. Retail gas demand has put pressure on supply and prices. Georgia is the exception, with both diesel and gasoline staying Code Orange. Long-hauls have mostly ended in the Southeast, as local carriers can meet local demand.

 

Florida Supply:

Situation is improving. Code Orange for diesel, Code Red for gasoline due to retail demand. Supply is mostly in good shape across the state, though carrier capacity is tight.

  • Miami/Pt Everglades: No updates. Major terminals have all reopened, but carrier capacity is extremely limited. Port is now open.
  • Tampa: Major terminals are all open. Orlando terminal lost power again, unsure when it will be back online. Carrier capacity is tight. High demand is stretching carrier capacity thin.
  • Jacksonville: No updates from yesterday. Terminals and ports are online.

 

Market Summary

Code Red (Areas with significantly reduced or unavailable supply)

  • Dallas/Ft Worth, TX
  • El Paso, TX
  • Odessa, TX
  • Waco, TX
  • Gasoline – Florida

Code Orange (Areas with limited supply availability)

  • Austin, TX
  • Buda, TX
  • Beaumont, TX
  • Edinburgh, TX
  • Harlingen, TX
  • San Antonio, TX
  • Gasoline –  Southeast States (MI, AL, GA, SC, NC, TN)
  • Diesel – Georgia
  • Diesel – Florida
  • Northeast States (Virginia to Maine)

Code Green (Areas with normal supply availability)

  • Corpus Christi, TX
  • Houston, TX
  • Diesel – Southeast States (MI, AL, SC, NC, TN)

Market Condition Report - Disclaimer
The information contained herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Furthermore, no responsibility is assumed for use of this material and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. This material and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement or recommendation to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.

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