Storm Recovery Update – Florida Quickly Recovering, Texas Still Improving

Markets continue to recover following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. After all the hype related to Irma’s record strength, the impact on fueling infrastructure has been minimal. Most terminals are back in operations at this point, and vessels are rushing in to re-supply terminals in Tampa and Pt. Everglades. The fuel difficulties in Florida are mainly caused by logistics – carriers are still catching up on the back-log of orders that came before Irma struck, so long lines at the rack are delaying deliveries.

Currently, both OPIS and Mansfield’s SVP of Supply, Andy Milton, agree that the situation in Florida should be dramatically better by the beginning of next week. Although supply tightness will continue, particularly for diesel amid reconstruction fuel demand, the market should be much more capable of meeting demand. In FL, 37% of all gas stations do not have fuel, a number over 50% in Miami and Naples. Tampa and Orlando about both have roughly 40% of gas stations offline. As far north as Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC, gas stations outages surpass 20%.

In Texas, markets have begun to improve this week, and most markets are expected to move to Code Orange by the end of the weekend. West Texas remains the hold-out, with supply likely to remain on Code Red for another week.

 

Texas Supply: 

Markets remain tight, but are generally improving. Houston and Corpus Christi are the bright spots for supply, while San Antonio, Dallas, and West Texas remain on Code Red until at least early next week. Long hauls from out-of-state are still necessary in some areas, but supply is slowly beginning to improve. Refining outages are unchanged with 4 refineries (700 kbpd of fuel) offline and several others still restarting or operating at reduced rates.

  • San Antonio: Some terminals coming back online, reducing lines at rack as carriers have more terminal options. Diesel should begin loosening in the next day or two; gasoline not until the end of the week. Dyed diesel has been tight.
  • Houston: No changes. Code Orange on all products. Houston market is generally able to support local demand, but is not strong enough to support surrounding cities facing outages.
  • Dallas FTW: Terminals are opening, adding options for carriers that will help reduce lines. Expecting to move to Code Orange by this weekend, as Dallas is nearly able to support local demand.
  • Corpus Christi: Supply remains in good shape, and this market has been a sourcing point for long-hauls. Carrier capacity is the main constraint on re-supply efforts.
  • West Texas/El Paso: Waiting on resupply, product will remain extremely tight for at least a week. Expecting this to be the last Texas market to move to Code Orange.

Southeast Supply: 

No major updates: Supply remains tight through the Southeast. Batches of fuel on Colonial are still coming out of order, making it difficult to set estimates for when supply will normalize. Demand remains extremely high, pushing carrier capacity to its limits. Even in some areas with sufficient supply, lack of available local carriers has required long-hauls from other markets.

Diesel remains in better shape than gasoline, which is tight in Georgia and the Carolinas. Diesel spot availability is also tight.

Georgia/South Carolina update: power outages reported throughout the state, mostly focused on the coast and Atlanta. Savannah and Charleston both have numerous gas station outages (30% and 10% offline, respectively). Coastal fuel terminals are open and operational.

 

Florida Supply:

Power is slowing coming back online in Florida, and the number without power has fallen from over 6 million to 3.8 million. Most terminals in Florida have resumed operations, and most ports have reopened. Carriers are still working through backlogs from before Irma, so new deliveries may take 2-3 days to be delivered.

  • Miami/Pt Everglades: Most major terminals have reopened, but carrier capacity is extremely limited. Port is now open.
  • Tampa: received a weaker blow from Irma than expected. Most terminals are open. Supply is sufficient, but carrier capacity is very tight. Port Tampa (6.5 million in fuel receipts) has reopened. Extremely high demand is stretching carrier capacity thin.
  • Jacksonville: Terminals and ports are online. Some carriers have been commandeered by govt to support FEMA efforts, making carrier capacity extremely tight.

 

Market Summary

Mansfield continues to work around the clock to help our customers fuel during the storm. If you have any questions or need to secure supply in the Gulf, Southeast, or in Florida, please reach out to your sales rep or customer relationship manager for more information about ordering product. Please place orders 48-72 hours in advance whenever possible, to allow time to secure supply and freight during the shortage.

Code Red (Areas with significantly reduced or unavailable supply)

  • Austin, TX
  • Beaumont, TX
  • Buda, TX
  • Dallas/Ft Worth, TX
  • El Paso, TX
  • Houston, TX
  • Port Arthur, TX
  • San Antonio, TX
  • Waco, TX
  • Southeast States (Mississippi through Maryland)
  • Charleston, SC
  • Savannah, GA
  • Florida

Code Orange (Areas with limited supply availability)

  • Corpus Christi, TX
  • Edinburgh, TX
  • Harlingen, TX
  • Odessa, TX
  • Lake Charles, LA
  • Baton Rouge, LA

 

Market Condition Report - Disclaimer
The information contained herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Furthermore, no responsibility is assumed for use of this material and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. This material and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement or recommendation to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.

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