Mid-Week Review – March 17, 2021

EIA expects crude oil prices to rise through April because of lower OPEC production

In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude oil prices will average $64 per barrel (b) in the second quarter of 2021 and then fall to less than $60/b through the end of 2022. Higher crude oil prices in March and April are primarily a result of lower crude oil production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+), as announced at their March 4 meeting.

Crude to $100: Trader makes the case for a spike in oil prices

Crude oil prices are on a path to highs not seen since 2014, according to one chart analyst. As the energy sector tracks for its best quarter on record with a year-to-date gain of nearly 40%, there’s “clearly some upside” for oil prices as well, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to … 12 months from here,” said Johnson, his firm’s senior technical research analyst.

U.S. Refiners’ Profits at Risk From Rising Biofuel Costs

The profit for turning crude into gasoline is at the strongest in years, but the mighty margins that entice refiners to churn out product may end up burning them. The gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of profit, surged above $24 a barrel on Friday to the highest seasonal level since 2015. There’s a lack of gasoline in the U.S. — fuel inventories are at the lowest since November — after freezing weather in Texas last month caused widespread refinery outages. Ultimately though, rising biofuel costs are threatening to sting some refiners wanting to ramp up and take advantage of juicy margins.

Oil bears and bulls grapple as market puzzles over pandemic exit

Trading in oil futures is now as heavy as it was in the first months of the COVID-19 crisis, according to market data and analysts, with oil bulls and bears rushing to hedge against jolts in the steady rise of prices. But speculation over when and if people will begin to travel and commute as they once did is driving dueling bets in the market and historic volumes of trade.